植耀輝: 變數眾多 恆指短期續反覆
耀才證券研究部總監植耀輝稱,恆指今年「五不算窮、六亦不絕」(連續兩個月皆錄得升幅),不過7月是否能翻身現階段仍言之尚早,先從歷史數據分析。過去40年恆指7月確是升多跌少,有27年錄得升幅;不過,近5年計卻有3年錄得跌幅,而去年恆指7月更累跌近一成,表現為近40年來第二差(最差為1984年,當時累跌11.2%)。另外,恆指能夠連升三個月(5至7月)的次數原來亦不多,近40年只曾出現過8次。觀乎以上數據分析,7月恆指延續升勢的機率似乎亦只是「一半半」。
至於宏觀經濟環境亦較難看得通。美國經濟衰退疊加加息陰霾將是後市一大不明朗因素,雖然近期商品價格大幅急挫,但在通脹高達8.6%情況下,與聯儲局目標2%仍相距甚遠,意味聯儲局未來仍需要大手加息。聯儲局最新會議紀要亦顯示,大多數委員均認為本月議息會議須加息0.5厘或0.75厘。至於歐洲經濟亦好不了多少,同時亦須提防出現「歐債危機2.0」。加上俄烏戰事因素,令歐美股市下半年形勢相當不明朗。相比之下,內地形勢卻較樂觀,在貨幣政策面仍較寬鬆的情況,以及憧憬更多扶持措施出台下,A股行情未必會太差,只是港股夾在中美之間,走勢亦肯定相當反覆兼波動。
但港股尚有一個較被動之不利因素,就是騰訊(00700.HK)。「企鵝」未來一段時間肯定「無運行」,皆因股價每次造好只會惹來大股東Nasper加快減持,變相限制其股價表現,亦降低其反彈之值博率,可能要等到Nasper減持告一段落,這「緊箍咒」才有望消散。在眾多因素左右下,相信港股短期仍難有突破矣!
最後談談近期急升之醫藥股。除了個別藥企有關新藥之正面消息外,急升原因主要是內地有分析認為該板塊估值處於近五年低位,以及基金前期配置不足導致出現「追貨」現象有關。當然亦不能排除有追落後因素,惟畢竟股價已累積相當升幅,現價值博率亦不高,寧待有更多與醫藥相關政策消息配合再作部署也不遲。
(筆者為證監會持牌人,並未持有相關股份)
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恆指爭持格局 有望挑戰22000點阻力
耀才研究部稱,隔晚(7日)美股三大指數全線向上,升幅達1%至2%,商品價格回穩,油價重返100美元之上,有助穩定股市走勢。有聯儲「鷹王」之稱的James Bullard指有信心美國經濟今年維持正增長,不過他與Christopher Waller均認為7月份將加息0.75厘,他們兩位均有今年的投票權。港股方面,內地接連推出刺激汽車及體育用品的消費政策,帶領該板塊跑嬴大市,最新國家能源局指加快推進重大水電、抽水蓄能和大型風電光伏基地等可再生能源重大工程及項目的建設,政策市將支持電力股跑出,黑期預示恆指將重返22,000點阻力。
技術上,恆指MACD開始出現熊信號,短期走勢利淡,不過連續兩天於21300點水平找到支持,而且跌市時大市成交相對較少,暫時屬於爭持格局。指數由5月起形成了短期上升軌,小心如果跌穿21,300點軌道支持的話,則需要市況可能逆轉,需要回試50天線水平。
(筆者為證監會持牌人)~
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