《大行報告》渣打維持對中國10年期國債收益率第三季升至2.95%的預測
渣打維持對中國10年期國債收益率在第三季升至2.95%的預測,然後在年底前回落至2.8%,預期國債收益率曲線可能在第三季略微變陡,然後在銀行同業拆借利率正常化時趨於平緩。
渣打在報告指,中國經濟增長可能已經觸底,通脹將在第三季反彈;銀行同業拆借利率可能已見底,寬鬆的貨幣政策可能會保持不變,因爲增長仍低於目標水平,且新冠疫情的影響持續存在。
該行認爲,隨着貸款增長復甦和資金需求轉向股票,銀行對債券的需求可能會下降。
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