植耀輝: 港股反覆靠穩 短期續呈拉鋸格局
耀才證券研究部總監植耀輝稱,港股昨日(4日)走勢缺乏方向,低開超過169點後跌幅一度擴至超過400點,但在個別科技股發力加上醫藥股有表現下,恆指收復失地之餘更一度倒升,最終亦僅微跌29點,收報21,830點,成交維持1,300億元以上。成份股中以藥股升幅最顯着,藥明生物(02269.HK)急升8%,中生製藥(01177.HK)及石藥集團(01093.HK)亦分別上升6%及4.1%。早前急跌之創科(00669.HK)亦回升4.2%。不過手機設備股則見沽壓,舜宇(02382.HK)股價大跌6.6%。另外,上週四急跌近半之商湯(00020.HK)沽壓未止,昨日收報2.54元,下跌近兩成。
後市方面,由於整體氣氛仍觀望,畢竟本週焦點爲週五(8日)公佈之美國就業最新數據,今日(5日)亦會公佈耐用品訂單數據。預期在此情況下,恆指將維持拉鋸格局,並於21,500至22,500點水平上落。
板塊方面,醫藥股近期出現強勁反彈,個別股份自低位更反彈近倍。事實上,近期A股醫藥板塊亦有理想表現,反彈原因不外乎是與憧憬政策扶持以及估值處於低位有關。雖然預期估值或可進一步收復,惟短期已急升不少,故入市亦只宜小注。
(筆者爲證監會持牌人,持有創科股份)
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耀才研究部團隊:美國或於本週下調或取消部份對華關稅
耀才研究部稱,隔晚(4日)美股假期休市,等待工業訂單數據出爐以揭示經濟前景,美國10年期國債息率最新彈至2.9釐以上,不過仍然於3釐之下,市場發現玉米、小麥、銅等價格開始下滑,多間大行暗示通脹壓力漸漸見頂回落,有利經濟發展。黑期預示恆指將升逾200點,再度於22,000點爭持,外電指美國總統拜登本週或宣佈取消部分對華關稅,其中包括暫停對服裝和學校用品等消費品徵稅,正如前文所提及,中美關係的利好消息將成爲大市下一個的催化劑。焦點板塊中,內房再度爆發違約消息,加上恆生綜合指數剔除8間內房公司導致板塊昨日急挫,最新恆大(03333.HK)提出將其「20恆大01」兌付日再推遲半年,資金將持續換馬至槓桿低的房企龍頭當中。
技術上,恆指回補6月27日上升裂口即21,762點後找到支持,並守住5月起形成的一條上升軌道,屬浪高於浪格局,後市仍然有機會挑戰4月位高位。不過小心如果跌穿21,300點軌道支持的話,則需要市況可能逆轉。
(筆者爲證監會持牌人)~
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