《大行報告》瑞信下調蒙牛(02319.HK)目標價至48元 評級「跑贏大市」
瑞信發表研究報告,預期伊利(600887.SH)與蒙牛(02319.HK)透過將其UHT奶及乳酪產品積極擴張至利潤或增長較好的產品,如奶粉、鮮奶及芝士等,公司於2021至2025財年在中國乳業市場有望進一步獲得市場份額。加上液態奶的競爭及成本壓力可能有所緩解,令伊利和蒙牛於2021至2025財年的銷售年均複合增長率分別為12%及17%,而盈利複合增長率各為10%及16%。
該行估計,由於供需改善和成本壓力緩解,2022及2023年的中國國內原料奶價格可能溫和下跌。伊利和蒙牛加大對上游合作夥伴的投資,相信可緩解供應憂慮,並有助於避免成本快速上漲。
此外,瑞信看好中國乳業龍頭企業在產品種類擴張及毛利率改善方面的強大增長潛力,並認為伊利的盈利能見度優於蒙牛,主要由於其高毛利率產品種類的敞口增加,以及更強的分銷網絡。對蒙牛的目標價由58元下調至48元,維持「跑贏大市」 評級。
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