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大新銀行料本港全年經濟增長0.5%
阿思達克 06-28 17:05
大新銀行高級經濟師溫嘉煒表示,本港需求預料繼續復甦,若內地疫情逐步緩和,經濟活動上有「追趕式」反彈,料對香港經濟有正面影響,估計香港全年經濟增長0.5%,明年或加快至2.3% 內地公佈最新「7+3」防疫措施,他認爲無疑能帶動遊客人流,惟難以助本港旅遊界回升2018年高峯水平,皆因本港向來依靠不過夜遊客來港消費,料仍需時恢復;他續指,若內地經濟復甦情況較預期更理想,不排除恆指上試25,000點。 他表示,不排除本港樓價呈溫和回調,全年或跌5%,又稱本港樓市供應穩定,但買家態度較爲謹慎,認爲未來樓市走勢要視乎內地疫情發展及美國加息速度。 在內地經濟方面,他表示受4、5月受疫情打擊拖累,內地目前採取穩經濟、穩就業政策,主要依賴積極的財政措施,包括減稅退稅、提供消費補貼、減徵汽車購置稅、增加基建等,惟料整體增長前景仍面臨較大壓力,將內地經濟全年增長預測下調至4%。 他又指,美國加息步伐令整體息口處於上升階段,若聯儲局下次加息幅度爲0.5至0.75釐,對港元息口構成壓力,料港元下半年拆息或加快上升,P按息率則有機會於第三季上升。
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