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植耀輝: 繼續跟國策走 內房汽車股待回調吸納
耀才證券研究部總監植耀輝稱,要數近期最受關注之股份,肯定是新東方在線(01797.HK)莫屬!此股本月以來連番急升,即使以昨日收市價計,本月累升仍超過4.7倍,若以最高位33.15元計累升更「得人驚」。急升緣於其旗下直播帶貨平臺「東方甄選」採用雙語直播大受觀迎,「粉絲」數目節節上升之餘更刺激商品銷售額,相信就連公司本身亦始料不及。但這一賣點最大問題,在於要「跟風」其實輕而易舉,而且很快便會缺乏新鮮感;不過最誇張還是股份交投,股份轉手率之高令人咋舌,這亦反映股份炒作相當厲害,就連股東之一的騰訊(00700.HK)趁其股價急彈後亦即急急沽貨離場。所以若非眼明手快的話,絕不建議大家參與此極高風險之投機炒作。 另外,截至執筆一刻,恆指年內暫累跌約8%,雖然表現未算出色,但相比美股三大指數已算是相當不俗矣!港股能「跑贏」美股,極大程度在於憧憬內地會有更多惠民紓困措施,這亦是今年下半年港股投資之其中一個重點。事實上,正當大家擔憂歐美經濟可能無所避免出現衰退或面對滯脹風險,內地今年要達成5.5%之經濟增長目標難度亦相當高,所以在疫情過後必然會推出更多寬鬆措施以刺激經濟,因此下半年投資策略亦相當簡單,就是跟着政策走。當然筆者過往已多次提及可留意內房、汽車及新能源等板塊,若見回調可再作跟進。 (筆者爲證監會持牌人,並未持有相關股份) ******** 科網股強勢 恆指能否升穿21,500點成關鍵 耀才研究部稱,隔晚(23日)美股三大指數全線向上,6月美國Markit製造業PMI報52.4,遜預期的56及前值的57,加上新領失業金人數亦高過預期,美國債息持續回落,十年期國債息率最低試過跌至3釐的水平,市場憧憬經濟數據疲弱會軟化聯儲對打擊通脹的決心,對股市有所支持,消費股表現較好,不過工業股及油股則逆市下跌。本港方面,恆指依靠新經濟股支撐下重返21,000點關口,金龍中國指數升3%,醫藥及互聯網股繼續領漲大市,不過內地最新規範直播主行爲,禁止直播主展示不良行爲,而醫療法律財經等專業直播亦要有執業資格,小心直播平臺的股價出現回吐。 技術上,恆指未能突破21,500點即市阻力,過去兩週造成了一個約800點波幅的橫行區間(20,700至21,500),恆指要成功突破即市阻力纔能有條件上望6月高位22,142點水平,即市支持將會位於50天線20,800點。 (筆者爲證監會持牌人)~
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