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《大行報告》花旗料新能源汽車至2025年在內地滲透率大升至60% 普遍上調目標價
花旗發表報告,對中國汽車行業的全生命週期成本進行獨特分析,該行提出了兩個非市場共識性的關鍵點,第一是該行認為市場對新能源汽車購買的決定越來越取決於「全生命週期成本」(FLC,Full Lifecycle Cost)對比新能源汽車內部空間,並認為此因素被資本市場忽視的;第二是料在汽油和碳酸鋰價格在2023財年再上漲25%-50%情況下,新能源汽車的全生命週擁有成本將比傳統內燃機汽車低出36%。該行指將相關因素納入其估值模型,提高了對中國領先新能源汽車製造商的銷量預測,進而提高該行對中國至2025年及2030年新能源汽車滲透率預測各至60%及90%(對比2022年預測滲透率29%)。花旗認為市場對內地新能源汽車企業的估值,將逐漸從市銷率轉向使用動態市盈率。 在此基礎上,花旗上調比亞迪(01211.HK)目標價,由587港元升至640港元,維持「買入」評級;升理想汽車-W(02015.HK)目標價由104港元升至225.3港元,維持「買入」評級;調高小鵬汽車-W(09868.HK)目標價由142.6港元升至198.38港元,維持「買入」評級。該行指在行業中首選比亞迪及蔚來-SW(09866.HK),其次是理想汽車及小鵬汽車。 該行估計內地新能源汽車於2022年銷售達630萬輛、料至2025年新能源汽車銷售達1,390萬輛、至2030年新能源汽車銷售達2,340萬輛,料內地新能源汽車於2025年至2030年銷售複合增長率為11%,並估計中國本土汽車品牌企業取得新能源汽車市場份額約75%至85%。(wl/a) ~
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