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大新銀行下調內地今年經濟增長預測至4%
阿思達克 06-16 09:25
大新銀行高級經濟師溫嘉煒表示,內地今年整體的增長前景仍面臨較大壓力,要取決於疫情是否受控,並將今年全年增長預測由上月的4.3%再下調至4%,反映疫情對內需恢復較慢,以及外需或會放緩;料人行仍會避免大幅放寬貨幣政策,以免加劇人民幣貶值壓力。 他表示,上海於本月初全面復工復產,有助當地工業及消費活動,但北京的疫情繼續傳播,在內地堅持「動態清零」目標的前提下,整體的防疫措施可能仍會維持偏緊較長時間。 他指,5月零售銷售按年下跌6.7%,跌幅較4月收窄4.4個百分點,普遍的消費類別均見改善,但尚未完全復甦;6月一年期中期借貸便利利率維持2.85%,符合預期。目前內地整體流動性充裕,但信貸需求仍然較疲弱,預料短期內下調存款準備金率的機會較小。(ca/u) ~
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