《大行報告》匯豐研究:航運股近期回調提供良好切入點 重申中遠海控(01919.HK)及海豐國際(01308.HK)「買入」評級
匯豐研究發表報告,指上周四至五(9至10日),受累有報道指美國進口需求急劇放緩,航運股股價下跌最多25%。該行在上周行業會議與十數家航運商交流,它們均未錄得反映有關業務蠶食的經營數字。航運商與航運代理一致認為,在需求端未見到惡化情況。最少短期而言,它們續有穩定訂單流入及未見到訂單取消。
報告稱,如早前所述,部分運往上海的集裝箱被轉向鄰近港口。業界仍預期未來數周將有更多運量。上海港5月底已恢復95%經營,寧波舟山5月吞吐量增16%,深圳港則升15%,當月內地出口按年升17%。這或解釋了上海出口集裝箱運價指數(SCFI)連續四周持續改善,較5月13日低位累升約2.1%。
此外,美國全國零售聯合會(NRF)料美國次季集裝箱進口貨量按年升4%,第三季升幅收窄至1.7%。洛杉磯的港口在節假日旺季前預先補貨,料明年下半年供應鏈將回復正常。這支持了航運商今年第三季可見度改善的觀點。
匯豐研究稱,維持對航運及航運代理板塊建設性看法,料持續港口擠塞將抵銷短期需求疲弱。倘下半年供應鏈持續受干擾,該行料市場對航運板塊預測有上調空間。考慮強勁現金流及盈利展望,航運股近期回調提供良好切入點。該行予部分航運股投資評級及目標價表列如下:
股份|投資評級|目標價(港元)
中遠海控(01919.HK)|買入|22元
海豐國際(01308.HK)|買入|55元
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