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《大行報告》瑞信:中資券股基礎改善 短線看好中金(03908.HK)及廣發証券(01776.HK)
瑞信發表研究報告指,5月份社會融資總額高於市場預期,表明流動性充裕,瑞信經濟學家團隊認為,隨著消費者物價指數(CPI)按月下降0.2%,反映進一步貨幣寬鬆的空間很大。 該行預期,中資券商行業基本面改善,加上寬鬆貨幣政策,帶來潛在上行空間。從過往紀錄來看,在大多數情況下存款準備金率(RRR)或貸款市場報價利率(LPR)下調都會導致券商指數上漲。考慮到4月及5月RRR及LPR已下調一次、RRR或LPR可能進一步下調,以及券商股現時估值不高,瑞信預計券商股在未來3個月將跑贏大市。 該行表示,疫情的影響仍為最關鍵因素,經評估相信影響後,預期在樂觀、基本及悲觀的情況下,內地券商行業2022財年稅後淨利或按年下跌3%、14%及25%。短期而言,瑞信看好中金公司(03908.HK)及廣發証券(01776.HK),估計若市場出現強勁反彈,兩隻股份都將有更大的上升空間;長期則看好中信証券(06030.HK)和東方財富(300059.SZ)。
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