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植耀輝: 美股急跌 觀望CPI數據
耀才證券研究部總監植耀輝稱,美股隔晚(9日)又再急跌,投資者關注經濟前景,另外對通脹之陰霾仍揮之不去,科技股顯著下跌。最終道指下跌638點或1.9%,收報32,272點,標普500指數則跌97點或2.4%,收報4,017點,納指跌幅更達到2.75%,最終收報11,754點。美國今晚(10日)將公布CPI數據,將會對後市去向有較大啟示。 港股方面,筆者繼續維持早前看法,亦即看恆指有望月內挑戰22,500點,同時會伺機減持部分持股。其實早前看好港股6月表現,主要是憧憬內地在疫情紓緩後會推出一系列刺激經濟措施,不過當時並未有預計到新經濟股監管陰霾有望消退,在疊加此等因素下,大市出現反彈亦相當合理。 但今年影響投資市場之因素實在太多,當中俄烏戰事的爆發令全球資源供應變得緊張,原材料及糧食價格持續飆升。世界銀行最新的一份經濟報告,便因以上情況而調低全球經濟增長預測。事實上,部分極依賴進口之發展中國家已開始受到衝擊,其他國家即使想伸出援手,但亦顯得束手無策。另一方面,全球現時均面對通脹風險,只是即使聯儲局未來仍會加息,但要壓抑油價/糧食價格漲幅似乎亦不太可能,意味下半年通脹問題將進一步惡化,甚至乎有較大機會出現衰退或滯脹。所以筆者雖然6月變身「大好友」,但下半年看法仍十分審慎。加上正如上文提到未來變數眾多,在「摸著石頭過河」的前提下,建議大家還是保守一點較好。 (筆者為證監會持牌人,並未持有相關股份) ************** 恆指回試10天線水平 季檢今日生效 耀才研究部稱,美國公布重磅通脹數據CPI的前一日股市急挫,隔晚(9日)美股三大指數跌1.9%至2.8%。由於內地部分地區再實施封控,亦影響了市場的氣氛。中概股同樣受壓,金龍中國指數挫近7%,由於螞蟻集團澄清目前只專注整改沒有IPO計劃,阿里(BABA.US)股價挫8%,亦將拖累恆指走弱,黑期預示港股跌逾300點。內地今日(10日)公布通脹數據,預計CPI按年升2.2%、PPI升6.4%,關注能源價格對出廠價格以及企業毛利的影響。恆指季檢今日生效,將加入中芯國際(00981.HK)、東方海外國際(00316.HK)、中升控股(00881.HK)及中國宏橋(01378.HK),剔出瑞聲科技(02018.HK)。 技術上,恆指首要阻力位置為100天線22,100點,不過昨日遇壓回落,將回試即市支持21,400,此為10天線水平以及5月尾的頂部位置。 (筆者為證監會持牌人)~
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