Market NewsForward-looking financial report | the epidemic affects takeout and tourist hotels! Meituan's loss in the first quarter may increase to 6 billion.Meituan-W (HK:3690) (03690.HK) will announce Q1 results after the close on June 2. Since March, China has been affected by the epidemic and city closure measures. Wang Xing, founder and CEO of Meituan, said that due to epidemic control in Shanghai, Meituan's main business was adversely affected in the first quarter.
According to Bloomberg's 63 institutions, 58 analysts bought, four gave and one sold.
The comprehensive market predicts that Meituan's Q1 income may increase by 22.35% to 45.299 billion yuan, of which catering takeout revenue may increase by 17.17% to 24.108 billion yuan, and the loss may further expand by 24.51% to 6.035 billion yuan, with an adjusted loss of 17.82% to 4.585 billion yuan.
Institutions affected by the epidemic generally predict that Meituan's income growth will slow down in the first quarter.
Zhongtai Securities said that according to their industry chain research, the average daily quantity of Meituan takeout Q1 in Shanghai in 22 years was about 1.2 million, compared with about 2 million in the same period last year, and that in Shenzhen was about 1 million in 22 years. Compared with 1.5 million in the same period last year. Zhongtai expects Meituan's Q1 order growth to slow in 2022, up 16% from the same period last year. In terms of inbound wine and travel, there is a very strong demand for local life before and after the Spring Festival, but due to the impact of the epidemic in Shanghai and Shenzhen in March (the two are expected to account for more than 20% of the total GTV), the overall overnight volume is expected to grow by only 3% (about 104 million nights).
For profit forecast and investment advice: Zhongtai continues to be optimistic about the long-term health and sustainability of the company's overall business. Taking into account the impact of the epidemic on business in some parts of the country, and macroeconomic uncertainty, Meituan 2022Q1's operating income is expected to be 44.92 billion yuan, and 2022Q1's NON-GAAP net profit is-4.4 billion yuan.
Based on the performance adjustment of 2022Q1, Zhongtai adjusted Meituan's operating income to 226.9 billion yuan in 2022 (previously forecast to 230.15 billion yuan in 2022), and adjusted NON-GAAP net profit to-11.55 billion yuan. Maintain Meituan's market capitalization of HK $1.2766 trillion and its "buy" rating.
China International Capital Corporation estimates that due to the resurgence of the COVID-19 epidemic in various parts of the country, Meituan's catering takeout, arrival, hotel and tourism business may further slow down in the first quarter. Meituan faces uncertainty in the second quarter, and takeout orders are expected to decline slightly. The total volume of transactions at the store may fall by about 30% year-on-year, giving the outperformance of the market and the target price of HK $251.
Furei, an international investment bank, believes that Meituan's income may increase by 23% in the first quarter, and the average order value will increase slightly compared with the same period last year. Taking into account the impact of COVID-19 's epidemic, the number of orders is expected to decline 2.6% year-on-year. The operating profit margin of the takeout business is expected to fall from 10.6% in the same period last year to 10% in the second quarter.
The Goldman Sachs Research News pointed out that although the epidemic control measures in March brought some negative effects, the performance will remain basically stable. Meituan's income in the first quarter is expected to grow by 22% to 45 billion yuan, and the market consensus is to increase by 23%. The adjusted EBIT loss is 5 billion yuan, which is larger than the loss of 4.6 billion yuan in the fourth quarter of last year. The bank expects investors to focus on the latest impact of the epidemic on its core business, particularly in stores, hotels and tourism, followed by the additional costs and cost implications of the containment measures.
Lyon Research believes that due to the impact of the epidemic control measures, Meituan Q1 core food distribution and store income of 31.3 billion yuan, the annual growth rate slowed to 15%; and it is expected that the core income growth will slow to a low number of units in the second quarter, but it is believed that it will rebound quickly after the lifting of the closure measures.
China Banking International: Meituan's performance will rebound in the third quarter.
In early June, China Bank International reported that Meituan's income in the first quarter would grow by 22%, with an adjusted loss of about 5 billion yuan. China Bank International pointed out that the takeout business performed well in the first two months, but orders in March fluctuated due to the blockade measures of the epidemic. China Bank International estimates that the average order value will improve year by year, which can offset the impact of epidemic assistance measures on performance.
China Bank International mentioned that due to the rebound in the epidemic, the market has fully expected Meituan to be weak in the second quarter. Meituan is expected to benefit from the reopening of Shanghai and the stabilization of the epidemic. Once the blockade measures are relaxed, Meituan's performance will rebound in the third quarter.
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