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機構6月策略:短期看好穩增長板塊,留意餐飲零售、汽車家電等機會

市場及策略回顧

投資者5月延續較爲審慎及保守態度。美聯儲公佈5月會議紀要,顯示對通脹的態度依然堅決,支持未來數次會議50BP加息、6月開啓縮表、考慮出售MBS,但更重要的是美聯儲在紀要中或透露了在年底放緩加息、甚至停止加息的可能。

另外,國內宏觀政策持續發力,並逐漸聚焦在寬房地產信用等核心舉措,這有利於穩定投資者對經濟的預期,成爲市場進一步反彈的重要支撐。隨着復工復產陸續推進,後市關注基本面修復力度。

六月投資觀點

踏入6月,市場聚焦疫情拐點和政策暖風,並關注美聯儲啓動縮表。美國公佈的核心PCE物價指數同比增長4.9%,通脹顯示出見頂跡象;我們仍認爲美聯儲將在9月放緩加息幅度至25BP,整體加息進程結束於23Q1,後續美聯儲操作路徑將很大程度上取決於供需缺口的縮窄程度,以及外部環境的變化。

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中國方面,央行5年期LPR下調15BP、連續降息,政策基調由託而不舉向積極支持轉變。當前市場對穩增長政策密集催化的預期充分。參與穩增長行情,還是要「買預期,賣兌現」,短期市場集中「賣政策催化兌現」,但調整後可以「買政策效果提升預期」,再佈局低估值順週期行業。

投資策略及配置

中國政策重點佈局製造業和供應鏈恢復。短期更看好穩增長板塊,重點提示「交易穩增長」(建築、建材、房地產) 的機會。

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國常會提出階段性減徵部分乘用車購置稅600億元及其他多項利好汽車行業恢復和發展的政策,看好汽車消費。另外,疫情形勢穩定,出行限制有所放鬆,看好三季度起民航客運量或將明顯反彈,疊加傳統的暑運旺季,利好機場航空股。

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多地加快出臺促消費政策舉措,並通過發放消費補貼、消費券等方式,刺激消費需求。留意餐飲零售、汽車家電、信息消費、綠色消費投資機遇。另外,當前銀行板塊已經凸顯足夠的估值安全邊際,在寬信用加上穩經濟的大前提下,預期銀行股將迎來估值修復。

主題投資方面,農業基金潛力佳。全球糧食危機,據國際食物政策研究所 (IFPRI) 發佈的數據,截至5月28日,包括阿根廷、印度等,全球已有20多個國家實施了糧食的出口限制令。債券市場方面,內地三部委進一步便利境外機構投資者投資中國債市,明確提出宏觀槓桿率會有所提升,有利於提升債券市場的流動性與穩健性。當前市場環境下,透過多元資產的配置更有望能爲投資人降低投資組合風險。

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