《大行報告》高盛下調贛鋒鋰業(01772.HK)目標價至160元 H股剔出確信買入名單
高盛下調贛鋒鋰業H股(01772.HK)目標價,由250元降至至160元,並把贛鋒鋰業H股剔出確信買入名單,基於該行對鋰價展望變得審慎。該行上調對贛鋒鋰業今年經常性每股盈利預測126%,但下調明年至2025年預測24%至45%,以反映該行對鋰價預測的修訂及更新公司擴展項目計畫。
該行指出,鋰現貨價格縱使將從現水平回調,但估計市場已大致反映相關短期風險及長期供應風險,並估計贛鋒鋰業H股股價為2024年及2025年行業低潮期預測市盈率的14至17倍,因而維持對贛鋒鋰業H股的「買入」評級。
該行上調對今年中國指標鋰化學產品價格預測1.76倍,但下調明年有關預測16%,以及下調2024年及2025年相關預測35%至23%。該行料中國現貨碳酸鋰每噸價格將由6.18萬美元回落至下半年的4.43萬美元,並在2023年跌至1.64萬美元,及在2024年至2025年見1.1萬美元,基於中國、澳洲及南美擴產將使市場供需在今年達至平衡,2024年至2025年或現18%至23%供應過剩。
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