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渣打料內地境外上市公司今年派息按年升3%至新高
阿思達克 05-26 10:14
渣打發表報告,預料內地於境外上市公司2022年將派息共930億美元,按年升3%至紀錄新高,其中在香港上市的公司的派息佔其中的96%,美國預託證券佔4%。 渣打表示,根據宣派股息和特別息的假設,估計21%的股息將在第二季派付,63%在第三季派付,13%在第四季派付。歷史經驗表明,人民幣兌美元和CFETS人民幣匯率指數籃子在第二至第三季均趨於走弱,部分原因可能是派息。 渣打指,自6月起,境外派息的大幅增加可能會增加資金外流壓力,並在短期內支撐美元兌人民幣的更高水平。外國投資者繼續以接近創紀錄的速度減持在岸債券,而在大宗商品價格上漲和出口前景疲軟的情況下,中國的貿易順差可能會減少。由於中美經濟增長、貨幣政策和利率分化,預計未來幾個月資本外流將持續存在,但中國清零政策的延續,也可能通過減少進口多於出口,以及通過限制出境旅遊來延緩經常賬戶順差的下降。 渣打指認為,派息相關的外匯兌換頻率,也可能受到中國企業接近創紀錄高位的外匯存款的而受到限制。該行維持第二季度末每6.7人民幣兌一美元的預測,在2022年底為每6.6人民幣兌一美元。
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