乘聯會：5月狹義乘用車零售預計環比上升
狹義乘用車4月市場回顧
受疫情影響，多地保持靜默管理狀態，汽車主機廠、零部件廠商生產停滯，物流運輸受阻，市場遭受嚴重衝擊。4月乘聯會狹義乘用車零售104.4萬輛，同比下降35.4%。受部分頭部新能源廠商生產短缺影響，4月新能源市場零售28.2萬輛，環比下滑36.5%，滲透率仍保持27.1%的較高水平。
汽車產業鏈恢復緩慢
本月以來，上海及周邊地區維持嚴格的防疫管控措施，儘管企業開始逐步恢復封閉生產和點式復工，但產能利用率較低，5月底前難以恢復正常水平，供應端壓力不減。此外，目前上海跨省通行限制較多，物流運輸恢復緩慢，作爲中國汽車產業重鎮，上海的零部件企業供應受阻將對下遊的整車生產造成持續影響。新能源市場方面，生產供應相比上月有所回暖，預計本月新能源市場仍將保持25%左右的市場滲透率。
1.廠商銷售動向
5月中旬乘用車總體市場折扣率約爲12.9%，相比上月（13.2%）略有回收。據5月零售目標調研顯示，佔總體市場約八成左右的廠商同比下滑超過兩位數，初步推算本月狹義乘用車零售市場在132.0萬輛左右，同比下降19.0%。
2.周度走勢推算
主要廠商零售第一、二週的日均同比分別爲-21%、-22%，車市受疫情持續影響，下滑幅度較大。預計第三週市場在上海及周邊地區復工復產的推動下將有所恢復，同比在-12%左右，第四周同比降幅-19%左右。綜合估算5月零售將達到132.0萬輛。
3.車市持續遭受疫情影響
受本土疫情多地頻發影響，防疫工作進入“科學防控，動態清零”的全方位綜合防控階段，居民被動或主動減少出行，出行類和服務類消費需求顯著下滑。今年1-4月，社會消費品零售總額同比減少0.2%，其中汽車類零售總額同比減少8.4%。廣東、吉林、浙江、山東等地自4月下旬起，逐步出臺汽車促銷費政策，小幅支撐車市。新能源市場供應環比上月改善，隨着多款新產品的上市，今年將持續保持穩健的增長態勢。中國汽車流通協會調研結果顯示，4月底汽車經銷商綜合庫存係數1.91，環比上月上升9.1%，終端閉店數量仍然居多，銷量受到重大影響，同時主機廠產能仍未完全恢復，終端存在結構性供給制約。
當前，上海及周邊地區疫情防控初顯成效，防反彈壓力仍然較大。北京、天津、四川、河南、江西等多省出現聚集性和散發疫情，各地隨即採取了嚴格的管控措施，給正常的生產、生活帶來了一定的影響，也對終端汽車消費造成了衝擊。
綜上，5月狹義乘用車零售銷量預計132.0萬輛，同比下降19.0%。（環比增長26.4%）
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