麥格理:維持敏華(1999.HK)跑輸大市評級 目標價降至6港元
麥格理髮表研究報吿表示,將敏華(1999.HK)目標價由9.7港元削至6港元;維持“跑輸大市”評級。
報吿指,儘管敏華從高位下調64%,但見底仍為屬於過早。該行在2022財年業績後更新了預測,並維持“跑輸大市”評級,認為當前的疫情控制和短期內需求不確定性將繼續給中國業務增長帶來壓力。海外方面,墨西哥工廠需要時間才能開始運營,而目前原材料成本上升的環境可能會延遲利潤率的恢復。
報吿指,認為市場2023財年的普遍盈利預期可能過於樂觀,敏華在中國擴張放緩,在過去兩年中門店數量翻了一翻,達到約6000家,並計劃在2023財年開設300-500家門店,同時將重點轉移到提高生產力和 現有商店的盈利能力。鑑於當前的流動環境,該行認為管理層正在優先將利潤率提高於收入增長。另外,北美業務在2022年下半年增速放緩至4%;雖然這可以歸因於高基數,認為有必要持續監控需求,鑑於當前的通脹環境美國的復甦可能會延遲,儘管近期人民幣部分貶值。
該行表示,定製傢俱一直是敏華的最新的商業計劃,雖然它仍處於早期階段。該行將2023財年的盈利上調7%並上調我們的預測;將在未來2022-25年之間實現收益年複合增長率10%,2019-22財年年複合增長。

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