中信建投：“諾曼底時刻”將至，打好疫後復甦運動戰
本文來自：中信建投證券研究，作者：陳果、夏凡捷、何盛
U型底期間運動戰是最佳戰術，疫後復甦是運動戰的絕佳線索。我們在此前的報吿中反覆指出，2900點是今年的黃金坑，全年市場將呈現U型底，二季度的重點是把握低位佈局。展望未來一個季度，我們認為戰略上不能再悲觀，但同時也要明確市場內外主要矛盾的改善過程很可能存在一定反覆，操作戰術上要有一定耐心，宜徐徐圖之，最適合的戰術打法是“運動戰”，左側謀劃右側決斷，不宜過度戀戰。
如何打好疫後復甦運動戰？避免終局思維，關注時間窗口，先勝率後賠率。多數投資者在討論本輪疫後復甦行情時多以終局思維來決斷，也即假定能復甦到疫情前的某個百分比水平作為行情的空間，從而按照不同行業收破壞程度來定義空間，重視賠率而對勝率和時間窗口的界定模糊。但終局思維更多瞄準遠期空間，行業的修復並不是一蹴而就，這從2020年疫情以來的案例可見一斑，因此終局思維並不適合當前運動戰的戰術目的，運動戰需要明確界定中短期的時間窗口並在標的選取上先重勝率再重賠率為宜。
運動戰的佈局時點：預計屬於本輪疫情的“諾曼底時刻”將在五月中下旬左右到來，當前正是佈局最佳窗口。上海疫情第一階段主要目標已基本實現，據上海衞健委數據，5月10日上海全部地區社會面新增再次清零，新增總病例數下降至1289例，本次疫情的“諾曼底時刻”將至。
運動戰的佈局方向：出行旅遊、2C端物流、新能源車與半導體。參考本輪疫情實際情況及武漢疫情以來的六輪疫後復甦行情，本次疫後復甦運動戰的板塊目標大體可分為兩類：一類為每輪疫情均會波及的共同板塊，以消費服務類行業為主，先重勝率再重賠率我們認為當前時點勝負手在出行旅遊與2C端物流，另一類為吉林、上海受損核心產業，主要是以上海及周邊地區為產業中心本輪遭受景氣破壞的新能源車、半導體等板塊，高景氣加持短期勝率賠率均有保障。
風險提示：經濟下行超預期、美聯儲加息進度超預期、地緣政治風險、疫情反覆
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