國金證券：看好鋰礦板塊新一輪行情
本文來自格隆匯專欄：國金證券，作者：倪文禕
一、產業鏈跟蹤最新反饋
季節性+疫情影響下鋰價已經企穩。
根據SMM最新報價，電池級碳酸鋰價格為46.15萬元/噸，工業級碳酸鋰價格為42.65萬元/噸，氫氧化鋰(粗顆粒)報價在46.9萬元/噸。
受到國內鹽湖4月開始季節性產量增加的影響，鋰價從前期高點50-51萬元/噸開始回落。至4月中旬開始，價格開始反應疫情對需求預期的影響，下游詢價詢單積極性開始下降。4月底以來，價格回落至46-47萬元/噸後，整體價格開始企穩，呈現抗跌狀態。
近期披露的復產、擴產項目較多，但增量都將體現在23年，22年供給格局已定。近期陸續公佈的鋰礦項目包括，澳洲Marion鋰精礦技改項目(從60萬噸擴產至90萬噸精礦)、雅保Wodgina第二條產線復產。根據上述項目計劃，其供應釋放體現基本在23年。目前時點往後，新公佈的擴產項目增量都將在23年體現，也就意味着今年鋰礦供應基本已成定局，我們測算的22年鋰礦增量預計在19萬噸左右。
二、看好鋰礦板塊新一輪行情
鋰礦今年供給已定，核心變量看需求邊際改善。需求短期受疫情影響，預計隨着後續疫情逐步得到緩解，下游開工和終端需求也將呈現邊際改善，判斷22年鋰仍是供需緊平衡狀態。
價格有望重新打開上漲空間。目前鋰價已經企穩，如上述鋰供給增量有限，且當前產業鏈庫存低，疊加礦價成本支撐，需求一旦恢復，後續價格有望繼續上漲。預計全年均價45-50萬。
鋰公司Q2繼續量價齊升，鋰礦中報業績確定性強。
價格。截至目前，Q2電碳均價48萬元/噸左右，環比Q1均價的42萬元/噸，環比上漲14%。考慮到國內鋰鹽廠長單的定價機制，當月售價為前一月最後一天價格，意味着5月底價格得到確認後，6月業績基本鎖定。Q2鋰價環比提升為大概率。
產量。考慮部分公司新產能投產集中下Q2之後，因此不少鋰鹽公司產量Q2、Q3環比連續提升。以永興材料為例，今年新增的2萬噸產能，各1萬噸產線分別在3月、6月投產，產量呈現逐季度提升。
三、投資建議&標的選擇
看好鋰礦板塊一波修復行情，重點圍繞“業績+成長”思路，看好有資源有加工產能且未來有成長性的公司，標的方面，贛鋒鋰業、永興材料、盛新鋰能、科達製造等。
四、風險提示
鋰礦新增產能、復產產能投產進度超預期、需求恢復不達預期等。
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