標普:招商局港口(00144.HK)旗下斯裏蘭卡港口業務不受斯國主權債務違約影響
標普表示,即使斯裏蘭卡近期發生主權債務違約,招商局港口(00144.HK)位於斯裏蘭卡的港口應能持續營運,其業務足跡遍佈全球,有利緩和斯裏蘭卡主權債務違約的風險。
該行指,招商局港口收入主要以美元計價並在境外交易,應不會受到斯裏蘭卡當地船運需求或外匯管控變化的影響,公司在斯裏蘭卡的科倫坡國際集裝箱碼頭有限公司和漢班託塔港國際港口集團公司,主要從事轉運業務,繼續正常營運,漢班託塔港的擴建計劃大部分可自主決定,主要用於升級設備,擴大集裝箱業務規模。
標普認爲,在最不利的情景下,招商局港口在斯裏蘭卡的業務可能全線暫停,不過此情景發生的可能性很低;即使發生,該公司2022年的經營性資金流對債務的比率只會小幅下降至9%至10%,略低於在基準情景下預測的10%至12%,但仍高於導致下調其個體信用狀況評估的臨界點6%。
該行估算,2022至2023年斯裏蘭卡業務將佔招商局港口收入的13%至15%,佔EBITDA的8%至10%。上月25日,標普將斯裏蘭卡的外幣主權信用評級下調至「SD」(選擇性違約),原因是該國的主權債務未能按時付息,同時將斯裏蘭卡的國家風險等級從至「5」(高)調整至至「6」(很高)。
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