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《大行報告》花旗升香港次季實質GDP預測至按年增長2.4% 估最快8月有機會與內地「通關」
阿思達克 05-05 11:11
花旗發表報告表示,就香港近日公布今年首季實質GDP按年下跌4%(經季節調整後實質GDP按季跌2.9%),低於市場原預期按年下滑3%,估計首季實質GDP屬本港全年最艱難時期,隨著社交距離措施的放寬,料本港第二季經濟活動將改善,決定上調對香港今年第二季實質GDP按年增長2.4%(升2.1個百分點),因原先估計本港5月仍會受眾多的防疫限制措施影響。 該行表示,維持對本港2022年全年GDP按年增長2.2%預測,屬港府對今年GDP按年增長2至3.5%預測的下限水平。隨著本地經濟活動持續回復正常,該行指需要觀察內地城市第二季的新冠疫情和部份地區「封城」是否見頂,該行認為香港經濟要真正復甦,最終取決於恢復本港與內地之間的免檢疫通關安排。該行繼續預期未來或先有小額配額上的重新開放通關,該行估計今年8月或年底有機會落實。 除了新冠疫情和內地經濟放緩的風險外,花旗表示,香港近期面臨的其他挑戰包括美聯儲局「鷹派」加息立場、本港聯匯制度下利率正常化過程會引起金融市場波動,若港元匯價進一步走弱,則可能出現資本外流。(wl/k) ~
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