《大行報告》瑞銀:債息上升利好銀行及具強勁資產負債表股份 看好友邦(01299.HK)、中銀(02388.HK)及恆生(00011.HK)等7股份
瑞銀發表研究報告指,市場對全球經濟增長前景及中國經濟受疫情影響的擔憂加劇,MSCI香港指數4月下跌5%,與MSCI 亞洲(日本除外)指數表現一致。該行稱,3月至今內地爆發新一波疫情,封城措施對生產及消費市場造成壓力,將今年中國實際GDP增長預測從5%下調至4.2%。
瑞銀又指,4月份美國十年期國債收益率及市場對美聯儲加息預期上升,亦是令MSCI香港指數受壓的原因,目前美國十年期國債收益率接近3%,對比3月底為約2.3%,實際收益率已轉為正值,認為較高的利率可能會導致MSCI香港指數的盈利增長放緩。
該行表示,基於2021至2023年每股盈利複合年增長率達到10%,對香港股票保持審慎樂觀,預計將成為今年驅動MSCI香港指數回報的主要因素。港府宣布放寬社交距離措施,瑞銀因此將香港科技探索(01137.HK)剔出港股最偏好名單,目前最偏好友邦(01299.HK)、恆生(00011.HK)、中銀(02388.HK)、長和(00001.HK)、銀娛(00027.HK)、金沙中國(01928.HK)及電訊盈科(00008.HK),最不偏好的股份則為太古地產(01972.HK)及恆地(00012.HK)。
另外,在收益率上升的環境下,瑞銀預計資產負債表強勁的銀行及企業將跑贏大市,列出7隻淨債務對EBITDA的比率低於2倍、具「買入」評級的股份,包括港交所(00388.HK)、百威亞太(01876.HK)、長和、銀娛、中電(00002.HK)、電能實業(00006.HK)及萬洲國際(00288.HK)。
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