You are browsing the Hong Kong website, Regulated by Hong Kong SFC (CE number: BJA907). Investment is risky and you must be cautious when entering the market.
仲量聯行降中小住宅樓價預測料全年跌5% 年內或逾2萬伙新盤獲批預售
仲量聯行發表報告,指樓市活動受第五波疫情拖累,今年首季中小型住宅樓價按季下跌3.2%;並下調對2022年中小型住宅樓價的預測,由之前的上升0至5%,改為預期下跌約5%,主要由於首季市場氣氛薄弱。 仲量聯行香港主席曾煥平稱,今年首季中小型住宅價格下跌3.2%,豪宅價格回落2.5%。然而,隨著疫情回穩,該行預期住宅市場交投將回升至與2021年相若的水平。由於市場累積了一定住屋需求,社交距離措施放寬後,潛在買家將為住宅市場帶來支持。觀乎待批預售樓花同意書的單位數量處於高位,該行預期今年下半年將有大量新盤推售,年內可能有逾20,000伙獲批預售樓花同意書,與2018年對上一個高峰期相若,再添上加息因素,將令樓價受壓。 土地註冊處數據顯示,2022年首季住宅銷售交易宗數僅錄得10,056宗,按季下跌33.8%,為近兩年來的最低水平。大部分發展商選擇推遲推出新盤,尤其是在1月後,限聚令進一步收緊,睇樓數量少影響了市場氣氛。因此,一手市場交易宗數錄得較大跌幅,按季下跌63.2%,二手市場則下跌20.8%。樓價方面,由於中小型住宅的潛在買家通常對價格較為敏感,令中小型住宅資本價格的跌幅較豪宅顯著。 儘管香港的住屋需求向來殷切,但市場氣氛亦受按揭貸款息率開始上調影響。聯儲局宣布加息後,香港金管局亦隨即於3月份將基本利率調高25個百分點。事實上,香港銀行同業拆息更早開始出現升勢,於3月底已升至0.3%。加息和對加息的預期,相信將難免影響入市氣氛。 該行項目策略及顧問部資深董事李遠峰稱,由於發展商將旗下新盤的推售時間由首季延至第二季或之後,預料未來數月將有大量新盤推出。今年首季,共有4個項目合共1,211個單位獲批預售樓花同意書而尚未推售。由於預料一手新盤供應將會增加,發展商很可能採取較進取的訂價策略,對二手住宅樓價造成壓力。因此,預料今年第二、三及四季住宅樓價將大致橫行。 不過,該行大中華研究部主管黃志輝稱,隨著新盤推出市場發售,住宅交投量勢將上升。政府放寬按揭保險計劃將有助推動換樓需求,特別是售價在1,000萬港元以上的住宅單位將尤其受惠。
Follow us
Find us on Facebook, Twitter , Instagram, and YouTube or frequent updates on all things investing.Have a financial topic you would like to discuss? Head over to the uSMART Community to share your thoughts and insights about the market! Click the picture below to download and explore uSMART app!
Disclaimers
uSmart Securities Limited (“uSmart”) is based on its internal research and public third party information in preparation of this article. Although uSmart uses its best endeavours to ensure the content of this article is accurate, uSmart does not guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the information of this article and is not responsible for any views/opinions/comments in this article. Opinions, forecasts and estimations reflect uSmart’s assessment as of the date of this article and are subject to change. uSmart has no obligation to notify you or anyone of any such changes. You must make independent analysis and judgment on any matters involved in this article. uSmart and any directors, officers, employees or agents of uSmart will not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person in reliance on any representation or omission in the content of this article. The content of the article is for reference only and does not constitute any offer, solicitation, recommendation, opinion or guarantee of any securities, virtual assets, financial products or instruments. Regulatory authorities may restrict the trading of virtual asset-related ETFs to only investors who meet specified requirements. Any calculations or images in the article are for illustrative purposes only.
Investment involves risks and the value and income from securities may rise or fall. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Please carefully consider your personal risk tolerance, and consult independent professional advice if necessary.
uSMART
Wealth Growth Made Easy
Open Account