《大行報告》大摩:中國對保經濟增長釋出重要正面信號 料科網平臺監管重置或完成
摩根士丹利近日發表報告表示,中共中央總書記、國家主席習近平早前主持中共中央政治局會議,會議公告發出強烈正面信號,再次確認經濟增長是中央政策重點。該行注意到積極的基調或可能暗示對房地產市場作出支持和科技行業監管重置完成。
關於內房及科技監管重置,大摩表示要特別強調兩點,第一是首次明確提及「優化商品房預售資金監管」,隨着資金準入的真正放寬,開發商面臨的違約風險可能會逐漸減弱,並改善離岸信貸市場風險評估。第二是潛在完成平臺經濟專項監管,出臺支持平臺經濟健康發展的具體措施。這兩個領域直接解決了中國股市的兩大主要風險——監管不確定性、以及對系統性擔憂從信貸到股市的溢出效應。
大摩表示要令市場持續復甦,料宏觀經濟需持續復甦、供應鏈要回復正常、真正拐點是企業盈利增長及股票市場流動性改善中持續復甦。因此,該行正在密切關注內地在動態清零政策持續下,供應鏈的恢復速度和可持續性、第二是在岸債券市場的反應,可以作爲現有可用監測流動性的代表;第三是內地貨幣和政策方面加強放鬆措施;第四是全球地緣政治緊張局勢和即將到來的美聯儲量化緊縮對流動性和風險情緒的效應。
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