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大摩:予中國人壽(2628.HK)大市同步評級 目標價13.3港元

摩根士丹利發表研究報吿指出,中國人壽(2628.HK)首季新業務價值下跌14%,雖勝市場同業,但亦因本身基數較低,至於首季純利接近減半,則受累於A股弱勢。大摩予國壽H股“與大市同步”的評級,目標價為13.3港元。

國壽首季純利約150億元人民幣,按年下跌47%,跌幅與新華保險相若,反映了純壽股較受市場波動所影響,首季業績大約相當於大摩全年預測的30%和市場平均預測的27%。如果經濟及市場情況進一步轉弱,大摩估計國壽盈利或有進一步下行風險。

大摩又指,國壽季績主要受到毛保費下跌3%和市場波動所影響,年化總投資收益率只有3.9%,遠低於去年同期的6%,但13%的年化股本回報率,仍然穩健。亮點是核心償付能力充足率達176.39%,依然強勁。

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