《大行報告》大摩料騰訊(00700.HK)首季收入增長2% 評級「增持」
摩根士丹利發表研究報告指,由於遊戲增長正常化及廣告業務復甦進一步延遲,預計騰訊(00700.HK)(TCEHY.US)今年首季收入將按年增長2%至1,387億元人民幣,非國際財務報告準則下經營溢利達363億元人民幣,按年跌15%,預期境內新遊戲推出及微信視頻號商業化或將為新催化劑。
大摩指出,首季境內遊戲業務料按年微跌,又指隨著遊戲版號恢復審批,騰訊月內將推出3款授權遊戲產品;國際遊戲業務方面,則預期增長放緩至11%,主要為一次性遞延收入確認的影響。
大摩預測騰訊線上廣告收入增長將進一步下降至18%,在宏觀環境疲軟及疫情下未見轉機,預計廣告業務要到第四季才恢復增長,明年在視頻號商業化帶動下增長料加快。
由於經營去槓桿化、持續收入組合調整等,該行預期騰訊短期內利潤率壓力將持續存在,預測首季非通用會計準則下經營溢利率按年跌至26.2%,維持「增持」評級及目標價480元不變,對應2023年預測核心市盈率約22倍,同時將2022至2024年各年非國際財務報告準則下經營溢利預測下調4%、5%及2%。
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