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二季度,這些芯片廠將漲價
在半導體供需是否即將面臨失衡,而陷入市場兩派爭論之際,除了2月Infineon發佈漲價函之後,STM更宣佈將於2022年第二季產品線全面調漲,因該公司爲全球主要微處理器、功率半導體的重量級供應商,又是以車用市場應用端爲主,其次爲工控、消費性電子等應用,故STM漲價此舉將反映三個趨勢。
其一爲後續微處理器、功率半導體業者將跟進調漲報價,可確認目前已有Renesas、Toshiba、NXP等決定在第二季調漲車用芯片達10~20%;其二則是成熟製程的晶圓代工供需緊俏程度依舊,特別是臺積電、聯電、世界先進、力積電、中芯國際、Global Foundries等;其三則是車用芯片荒並未結束,顯然先前日本強震影響部分車用半導體廠的供貨,加上中國疫情封城亦對供應鏈有所影響,反映供給端部門的瓶頸尚未解決,況且近期俄烏戰爭引發的高油價,有利於電動車滲透率持續拉昇,此對於車用半導體廠的接單將帶來加持效果。
事實上,在全球暖化、碳中和政策、高額補貼等因素推動新能源車、智能車等產業蓬勃發展下,車用市場佔半導體業相對具有相當擴張空間。特別是Toyota、Volkswagen、Daimler-Benz等傳統車廠,或Rivian、Lucid、Canoo等新創品牌紛紛投入電動車研發,其中尤其全球最大車廠Toyota由抗拒電動車轉爲擁抱電動車,並將本身2030年的電動車銷售目標由200萬臺上修至350萬臺,上修幅度高達75%,再者Tesla 2021年全年銷售量超出市場預期,使得市場更樂觀看待Tesla 2022年的銷售量有機會再創新高,甚至Apple亦可望開發Apple Car、最快2024年投產,代表電動車成爲未來全球車市成長的主要動能,並加速整體汽車產業轉型升級,而電動車相關的基礎建設及零組件等也隨着電動車放量而倍增,尤其是電動車因零部件減少、無複雜引擎技術,使得供應鏈更加扁平化,同時ICT廠商在電動車所扮演的角色將加重。
值得一提的是,由於車載硬體架構升級,特別是汽車智能化升級算力提升下,不斷增長的資料量要求汽車儲存或運算芯片需具有更快的資料處理速度、更大的資料存儲量,以及更高的穩定性,因此單車硅含量提升將是大勢所趨,中國汽車工業協會預計汽車單車所需芯片數量將由傳統燃油車的600~700顆/量增長至最高電動車/自駕車的3,000顆/輛;其中車用半導體值得關注的將以微處理器,以及支援海量資料處理的高效能運算芯片、用以環境感知與識別的感測器、保證資料傳輸速率和可靠性的記憶體、用以改變電壓電頻並實現直交流電轉換的功率半導體等爲主。
整體而言,在疫情、美中科技戰、地緣政治因素影響下,2020~2021年全球半導體供應鏈持續處於緊張態勢,特別是車用市場因先前撤單情況過於嚴重,使得後續回頭加碼半導體訂單時,產能早已遭到排擠,況且車用規格芯片、功率產品驗證週期較長、技術門檻高,也成爲車用半導體產能擴張的障礙,而以目前各大半導體企業產能建設計劃的推算,加上地緣政治情勢緊張、疫情不時出現幹擾來看,2022年車用半導體景氣週期獲得延續的機會將相當高,此也可從近期全球車用相關供應商持續呈現供貨緊俏、上遊成本增加,而調漲所有產品線價格可看出端倪。
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