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惠譽:中國國有石油公司財務狀況可滿足派息及回購資金需求
惠譽評級表示,今年潛在的消費需求疲軟對中國綜合性國有石油公司經營狀況的影響可能不盡相同。這些公司的上游業務將受到油氣價格高企的支撐,但由於3月以來中國新冠肺炎疫情重燃引發部分地區實施封控,其下游板塊可能受到成品油消費疲軟的不利影響。雖然市場存在不確定性,但中國國有石油公司仍擁有相較其獨立信用狀況而言可謂強勁的財務緩衝,可滿足其資本支出、派息及可能進行股票回購的資金需求。 受上游油氣售價上漲帶動,去年中石油(00857.HK)、中石化(00386.HK)及中海油(00883.HK)錄得強勁收益。惠譽預計,上游天然氣產量將增加,而石油產量將基本保持穩定。中海油主營上游生產,其收益可能會因今年油氣價格走強而上升。綜合油氣生產商中石油和中國石化將受益於上游收益的增加,但其煉油和營銷業務利潤率將因原油成本上升而受到擠壓,並受到原油庫存收益未顯著增加疊加成品油需求可能走弱的影響。 惠譽指,下游板塊來自民營煉廠的競爭已有所緩解。但近期主要商業中心實施封控導致原油和成品油庫存上升。需求端受到的影響將取決於封控的持續時間以及各項活動復甦所需時間。惠譽認為,必要時中國可在短期內增加出口配額以緩解國內供應過剩壓力,因此中石油和中石化有望將過剩的部分成品油供應用於出口,進而緩解國內需求不振帶來的影響。 該行認為,國有石油公司今年的經營性現金流仍可基本覆蓋其資本支出。國有石油公司將繼續將大部分資本支出投向核心的化石燃料業務。新能源業務的支出佔比也將提高,但因基數較低,佔整體資本支出的比重仍不高。中石化和中海油今年的資本支出按年增長至多15%,而中石油的預算支出可能會小幅下降。
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