大漲過後，如何看待煤炭板塊投資機會？
本文來自格隆匯專欄：中信證券研究，作者：祖國鵬
昨日在海外油價及國內能化期貨上漲的催化下，煤炭股票再度領漲，板塊創出年內新高。低估值、業績增長確定性高，依然是板塊上漲的核心基礎，近期的市場風格和情緒也有助於板塊估值的提升。大漲過後，我們認為還可重點關注估值有吸引力、前期漲幅相對較小的優質公司。
▍四大因素推動板塊領漲。
4月13日，中信煤炭一級行業指數收益率為+3.78%，跑贏滬深300指數4.74pcts，領漲各板塊。板塊上漲主要有四大邏輯：首先，煤價年初以來維持高位，市場對板塊的盈利預期不斷上調，板塊估值水平處於低位，這是板塊持續上漲的基礎；第二，降準預期、基建穩增長、地產政策放鬆等預期有助於改善需求預期，提升板塊估值；第三，海外油價是板塊近期波動的主要推手，昨日海外原油及國內能化期貨價格震盪後大漲，也推動煤炭股票上漲；此外，年初以來煤炭板塊漲幅居首，目前還有動量效應，不斷吸引資金關注。
▍進口減量及供給約束，依然是基本面強勢的主邏輯。
今年以來煤炭需求整體表現平淡，但煤價表現不斷超預期，顯示供給偏緊，而供給端的瓶頸主要來自於進口減量。進口減量的主要因素是俄烏衝突下海外能源價格維持高位，進口煤價優勢消失。按照海關總署公佈的數據，2022年3月份國內進口煤1642萬噸，同比下降39.9%；一季度進口煤量5181.2萬噸，同比下降24.2%。按照一季度的同比降幅測算，全年進口煤減量或在7800萬噸左右，佔全國煤炭消費量的1.7%，會對價格產生明顯的邊際效應。目前海外煤價雖然較3月高點有明顯回調，但進口印尼煤在廣州港較國內煤溢價30元/噸，其他國家進口煤較國內煤溢價約150～180元/噸，進口動力煤價依然無吸引力。對於焦煤而言，3月以來需求並未出現旺季特徵，需求整體維持低位，後續在疫情緩和及政策發力下，焦煤需求有望迎來新一輪擴張，在二三季度隨着旺季的推進，價格預計也會呈現向上的走勢。
▍2022年煤價預期整體上移，業績增長確定性增強。
按照各煤種Q1均價情況及煤價季節性特徵，我們預計動力煤價格4～5月份因淡季或略有走弱，但二季度均價依然高於去年平均水平，後續季度均價或逐季升高，全年均價同比有望上漲10～12%。焦煤價格在二三季度還會有10%左右的提價空間，加之去年上半年的價格低基數，預計全年煤價漲幅在20～25%。在此煤價假設下，預計主流上市公司2022年業績對應P/E估值水平在6x左右，近幾年8～10x的估值水平，還有明確的估值提升空間。
▍風險因素：
經濟增速放緩；海外煤價再度下跌；國內新增產能釋放等。
▍投資策略：
短期板塊波動節奏依然跟隨海外油價預期的變化。預計後續疫情緩和及基建開始發力後，煤炭需求還有新一輪脈衝改善；中期穩增長、地產政策逐漸放鬆等政策預期也會支撐行業需求預期。按照目前的業績預期和估值水平，板塊依然有上漲催化劑，仍有望實現顯著的超額收益。我們繼續建議重點關注業績確定性高的低估值公司：蘭花科創、潞安環能、陝西煤業、電投能源。
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