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渣打料內地第二季開啓降準減息窗口
阿思達克 04-11 15:12
渣打大中華區高級經濟師劉健恆認爲,內地不能單靠目前條件達至今年經濟增長5.5%的官方目標,而是需要更多措施,包括下調存款準備金率(RRR)和減息,以進一步放鬆銀根,雖然多個城市封城,但內地控制疫情的速度快,只要有更多宏觀政策並加大政府開支,相信能在今年達到5%以上經濟增速。他估計,降準減息的窗口會是第二季,預計最快本週或下週進行至少其中之一,預計下一個窗口會是5月和6月。 劉健恆預計,本港今年第一季經濟按年收縮1.3%,因爲整個季度均受第五波疫情影響,隨着四月疫情開始緩和、社交距離和入境措施放寬、消費券發放,第二季經濟將錄得正增長,但未必能收復全部失地。不過他指,去年發放消費券期間宏觀經濟環境較目前好,今次發放的消費券未必能在短期內見到成效,效益發揮時間將攤長來反映。
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