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大和:互聯網輕鬆增長期結束,美團利潤改善大

大和發研報指,中國互聯網行業現在正面臨一個嚴峻的事實,即輕鬆的增長期已經結束,因為公在分配任何資源之前必須仔細評估每項業務計劃的投資回報率。在2019-21年,該行認為一些公司更渴望將核心業務擴展到新領域並獲得資源以支持長期增長,從而推動了積極的招聘,結果一些公司被迫大舉招聘,以防止競爭對手招聘優質人才,以此作為防禦措施。

從監管環境來看,行業尚未完全走出困境,該行認為審慎的資源管理很可能成為互聯網公司的新趨勢。從公司的角度來看,該行認為不僅可以通過裁員,還可以通過降低銷售和營銷費用來節省成本。

該行認為,長視頻和廣吿行業、競爭過度的垂直行業如社區團購,和虧損嚴重的垂直行業如短視頻及雲等的收入增長勢頭可能會受到負面影響。雖然這些垂直行業的收入增長可能會在2022年放緩,但認為整體利潤率至少應該保持穩定或有所改善。該行又預計,本地服務如社區團購、網上約車的利潤率提升最大,其次是雲、長視頻及廣吿、國內遊戲運營和電子商務。

該行認為,美團優選的虧損將從2021年的265億元收窄至2022年的166億元,因此認為美團(3690.HK)的利潤率將在2022年實現最大的改善。該行還預計,騰訊(0700.HK)將實現其廣吿和雲業務的成本合理化,因為公司將更加着重收入質量。該行認為,隨着SaaS產品在規模擴張後的貨幣化,其利潤率將在中期內有所改善。

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