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晨星料今年美國GDP增長3.5% 2023至2024年放緩至3%
晨星發表2022年第二季美國股票市場展望報告,指出今年首季股票市場市普遍被高估、美國經濟增速放緩、聯儲局收緊貨幣政策、通貨膨脹過熱及利率上升等,年初至今晨星美國市場指數錄得近4.5%跌幅,有三分之二大型股份目前估值過高。 該行更新被高估大型美股名單,數量由15家減至11家,當中包括蘋果(AAPL.US)、特斯拉(TSLA.US)、英偉達(NVDA.US)、聯合健康保險(UNH.US)、寶潔(PG.US)、輝瑞(PFE.US)、禮來(LLY.US)、艾伯維(ABBV.US)、雪佛龍(CVX.US)、博通(AVGO.US)及家得寶(HD.US),指出更看好小型價值型股份,同時仍相信在FAANG之中部分仍具可觀的吸引力,包括Meta(FB.US)、亞馬遜(AMZN.US)、Google母公司Alphabet(GOOG.US)等。 板塊方面,晨星指出目前部分行業的大型及中型股都處於較高估值,只有通訊行業被普遍低估;而能源板塊則預期需時調整,維持WTI原油期貨價格每桶55美元及布油每桶60美元的長期預測。 晨星首席美國市場策略師Dave Sekera表示,俄烏衝突加劇市場避險情緒,但認爲俄烏戰爭對美國市場不會造成長期影響,指出美國企業當地業務較少,貿易關係有限,預期今年餘下時間市場不利因素影響大於地緣政治,美國經濟增長放緩幅度超出之前預測,加上通脹持續升溫且持續時間更長,預期要至下半年才見放緩。 晨星美國經濟研究主管Preston Caldwell補充,雖然美國經濟增長正在放緩,但與過去相比依然處於高位。晨星預測2022年美國GDP增長將由2021年的5.7%,放緩至今年的約3.5%,並於2023至2025年各年進一步減慢至3%、3%及2.8%,高於市場預期。
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