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《大行報告》摩通上調中石油(00857.HK)目標價至5.3元 評級「增持」
摩根大通發表研究報告指,中石油(00857.HK)去年第四季純利達到170億元人民幣,符合早前盈喜公告,2021年天然氣平均售價升至歷史第二高水平,雖然去年錄得天然氣進口虧損72億元人民幣,但情況好過預期,進口虧損較2020年同期減少49%。 摩通預計,2022年平均售價將進一步上漲約8%,同時管理層亦透露,考慮到國內天然氣生產成本遠低於每立方米1.5元人民幣,多出來的經營現金流將用於國內天然氣開發,即代表2023年後國內生產可能會加速,從而減少對高成本進口天然氣的依賴,預期為中石油2023至2025年天然氣產量增長帶來上行風險;另外預期俄羅斯的低價管道天然氣進口量佔中石油天然氣進口組合比例將由2021年的13%,上升到2025年的25%。 自4月30日起中國對舊液化天然氣合同推出70%的增值稅退稅政策,管理層估計將為2021年帶來50億元人民幣的積極影響。該行將中石油2022至2023年每股盈利預測上調2%及13%,以反映天然氣和勘探與生產部門的盈利前景改善,目標價由5.15元提升至5.3元,維持「增持」評級。
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