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《大行報告》瑞銀上調電盈(00008.HK)目標價至5.2元 爲本港電訊股首選
瑞銀髮表報告,將香港2022年經濟增長預測由2.2%下調至1%,估計2022-2025年香港電訊行業服務收入的複合年增長率爲0.4%,之前預測爲1.4%。該行認爲電訊業對宏觀經濟下行具有相對韌性,該行情景分析2022-2025年行業服務收入複合年增長率可能介乎下跌1.5%至上升2%。 報告表示,在對電訊公司進行估值時,將股息視爲最重要的因素之一,該行首選是電訊盈科(00008.HK),預計在宏觀逆風和改善非香港電訊業務的情況下保持韌性,電訊盈科2022年預測股息率超過8%,是同行中最高。該行將其目標價由4.75元上調至5.2元,維持評級「買入」。 該行表示,和記電訊香港(00215.HK)和中國移動香港最近推出了價格極具吸引力的5G計劃,認爲此類舉措可能會引發對價格敏感的客戶的市場份額轉移,不過相信此類促銷不會令香港電訊(06823.HK)或數碼通(00315.HK)流失重視價值的客戶,因上述兩家電訊商管理層關注客戶價值。該行亦不認爲幾家流動營運商推出的5G固網寬頻,對傳統固網寬頻構成重大威脅,即使月費看起來很有吸引力,但5G路由器的成本約爲2,000元,客戶實際須支付的價格與固網寬頻的費用水平相近。 瑞銀指,儘管香港寬頻(01310.HK)已恢復通過促銷來增加市場份額的策略,但監於市場對網絡質量的需求不斷增加,預計策略影響有限;在企業服務方面,預計數字化轉型需求將增加,帶動集成解決方案需求,不過中小企業的業務前景並未恢復,他們受到經濟復甦放緩的影響更大,因此看好香港電訊多過香港寬頻,因爲香港寬頻的業務較側重於中小企業。 該行將香港電訊目標價由11.2元上調至12.2元,評級由「中性」上調至「買入」;將香港寬頻目標價由14.7元下調至9.5元,評級由「買入」下調至「中性」。
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