《大行報告》瑞銀降本港今年經濟增長預測至1% 下調MSCI香港指數目標至11,600
瑞銀表示,由於全球經濟增長放緩、能源價格衝擊、高地緣政治風險導致貿易增長的不確定性,以及具有挑戰性的新冠疫情形勢,將其香港2022年經濟預測從增長2.2%下調至增長1%,嚴格的邊境和防疫政策可能導致人口和企業總部的淨流出,部分可能是永久性。
瑞銀表示,下調經濟預測這意味着2022-2023年盈利增長放緩以及股票估值降低,該行繼3月初下調指數目標後,再將MSCI香港指數目標從12,100點進一步下調至11,600點,預計MSCI香港指數到今年底將有5%上行空間。
瑞銀指,由於電訊盈科(00008.HK)今年預測股息率高達9%,將其列入首選股名單,並將太古地產(01972.HK)和恆基地產(00012.HK)列入其最看淡名單,以反映對地產商和寫字樓的謹慎看法。
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