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為何市場持續低估油價上行風險?

本文來自格隆匯專欄:國泰君安證券研究,作者:國君石化團隊

2022年地緣政治風險上升的背景下,全球原油供應鏈的脆弱性將顯現,高油價將成為常態。推薦①上游品種:中國海洋石油、中國石油、中海油服。②油價上行,煤化工及輕烴的競爭能力提升,推薦寶豐能源、衞星化學。

我們認為商品價格的方向不單由需求以及流動性決定;在庫存水平較低的前提下,供給因素重要性上升。俄烏衝突並非此次油價上漲的核心原因而是催化劑。油價中樞上行的根本原因在於長期capex投入的不足導致供給端缺乏彈性;即使沒有俄烏衝突,油價中樞抬升也是必然事件。2022-2023年高油價確定性較強,只是2023年的具體價格中樞需結合2023年美國油氣產業供給彈性及高價對需求的衝擊來判斷。而2022年供給端缺乏彈性。OPEC閒置產能釋放將低於預期,歐洲油公司轉型,而美國油公司面臨嚴重的供應鏈問題;我們判斷2022年原油價格中樞可能接近100美元/桶。同時如果地緣政治事件超預期,不排除油價的進一步上行風險。結合近期歐美對俄羅斯的制裁升級,我們認為每減少100萬桶/天的供應可能對應增加20美元/桶的價格上行風險。2023年需要持續跟蹤美國油氣產業的供給彈性,如果供給缺乏彈性則不排除中樞進一步上移的可能性。即使高價消滅部分需求,但我們認為再平衡的原油價格中樞將提升。我們認為40-60美元/桶的中低油價中樞將成為歷史。同時由於近期未平倉合約的減少,我們認為流動性下降波動變大是常態。

關於地緣政治事件我們與市場認知存在不同。即使俄烏衝突緩和,從市場情緒上看短期可能使大宗商品漲勢放緩,但造成的對原油供給的長期影響不可逆轉,市場可能低估了長期影響。主要體現在以下四點:①實際原油禁運受到的影響。②對俄羅斯原油生產的短期及長期影響。③歐盟原油及天然氣貿易版圖的改變將帶來交易摩擦成本的上升。④物流運輸的限制可能造成供應鏈的混亂。⑤行業存在自我放大行為。此外,我們認為伊核談判取得進展但在最終達到目標前仍有變數。伊朗產量的迴歸對2022年原油供應的貢獻有限。

儘管原油長期需求下滑但由於供給缺乏彈性可能造成供需錯配的時間窗口。交通運輸僅是原油下游消費的一部分而非全部。根據Rystad Energy預計,2022年資本開支小幅增加前提下,全球原油產量可能在2024年提前見頂,早於2028-2030年市場預期原油需求見頂的時間。

風險提示:全球經濟衰退超預期,全球疫情反彈超預期,全球釋放戰儲超預期。

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