一文綜合券商於國壽(02628.HK)公布去年業績後最新觀點及目標價
中國人壽(02628.HK)今早股價偏淡。公司昨(24日)收市後公布截至去年12月底止全年業績,總收入8,249.3億元人民幣按年升2.5%。純利509.21億人民幣按年升1.3%;每股盈利1.8元人民幣。派每股末期息65分人民幣,上年同期派64分人民幣。
國壽去年實現總保費收入6,183.27億人民幣按年增長1%;續期保費達4,424.63億人民幣按年增長5.8%。國壽截至去年底內含價值達12,030.08億元人民幣,按年增長12.2%。受疫情和保險需求釋放趨緩等因素的影響,新單保費為1,758.64億元人民幣,按年下降9.3%。國壽去年一年新業務價值為447.8億元人民幣,按年下降23.3%。總投資收益達2,140.57億人民幣,按年增長7.8%;總投資收益率達4.98%。核心償付能力充足率和綜合償付能力充足率分別達253.7%及262.41%。
【績後股價跌 憂前景挑戰】
瑞信表示,國壽去年新業務價值按年跌23%符合該行預期,即去年下半年新業務價值按年跌幅擴大至31%,該行料國壽今年首季新業務價值錄下跌14%至16%,並估計自今年第二季起相關跌幅或會收窄,因公司推出新產品。該行下調對國壽目標價由19元降至17元,維持「跑贏大市」評級,並調低對公司今明兩年每股盈利預測各6%及7%。
摩根大通表示,國壽去年純利509.21億人民幣按年升1.3%,去年新業務價值按年跌23%,指去年業績強差人意,因宏觀不確定性因素下,料公司今年盈利及派息仍會面臨風險。野村表示,下調對國壽目標價由20.16元降至17.68元,維持「買入」評級,指去年新業務價值表現符預期,但盈利表現遜預期。
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下表列出10間券商對其投資評級及目標價:
券商│投資評級│目標價(港元)
花旗│買入│22元
高盛│買入│20元
中金│跑贏行業│20元
野村│買入│20.16->17.68元
瑞信│跑贏大市│19元->17元
瑞銀│買入│15.8元
星展│持有│14.25元
摩根大通│中性│14元
里昂│跑贏大市│13.8元
建銀國際│中性│14元->13.3元
券商│觀點
花旗│去年下半年盈利遜預期,新業務價值表現符預期
高盛│去年盈利低於預期,關注代理人數數目前景
中金│去年新業務價值表現低於預期,代理人數數目有所提升
野村│去年盈利表現遜預期,新業務價值表現符預期
瑞信│去年業績符預期,料今年首季新業務價值錄下跌14-16%
瑞銀│去年新業務價值表現符預期,關注新戰略發展
星展│轉型時間較原預期為長
摩根大通│去年業績強差人意,因宏觀不確定性因素今年仍存風險
里昂│去年新業務價值低於市場預期5%
建銀國際│去年利潤疲軟
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