瑞銀:汽車和汽車零部件行業對大宗商品漲價的敞口最大
瑞銀中國股票策略研究主管王宗豪發表報告表示,儘管目前俄烏衝突對中國企業的直接影響有限,但大宗商品漲價以及歐洲經濟增長放緩可能令今年的盈利增長承壓。汽車和汽車零部件行業對大宗商品漲價的敞口最大。
比較各行業年初至今的表現及其估值水準,以判斷大宗商品漲價的影響在多大程度上可能已獲反映。該行認為,市場對軟體、醫藥、醫療設備、硬體科技、耐用消費品和服裝行業的下行風險反應過度,能源股估值接近其歷史平均水準,因此從估值角度看吸引力有限。
此外,市場預計今年EBIT利潤率將增長15個基點,雖然3月市場盈利預期已調低2%,但由於大宗商品價格居高不下,市場盈利預期可能進一步下調,或將拖累短期股市表現。
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