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瑞銀下調中國2022年增長預測至5% 年底人民幣兌美元匯率可能走弱至6.5
阿思達克 03-16 10:30
瑞銀投資銀行亞洲經濟研究主管暨首席中國經濟學家汪濤指,防疫收緊與俄烏局勢帶來額外下行壓力,政策支持可能進一步加碼,下調中國2022年增長預測至5%。 汪濤認爲,考慮增長面臨的下行壓力,未來1至2個月人行將下調政策利率10個基點,進一步降準,推動信貸增速反彈至2022年年中的11%左右。財政政策和房地產政策都有可能進一步放鬆。 不過,汪濤相信中國政府不會出臺全面刺激政策,亦不會很快放鬆動態清零的防疫措施,因此將全年GDP增速預測從此前的5.4%下調至5%。如果疫情限制和俄烏局勢衝擊更大,則GDP增長可能放緩至4%。相反,如果這些拖累對經濟的衝擊很快結束,或房地產活動超預期,則增長可能達5.5%。考慮增長面臨的下行壓力,該行認爲政策將進一步加碼政策支持。 另外,汪濤也將全年CPI預測上調至2.7%。PPI可能上半年在高位徘徊,全年5%左右。並預計年底人民幣兌美元匯率可能小幅走弱至6.5。
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