美股到底了嗎？
標普500指數今年開年來的表現可謂是史上第二差的開局。美國Fieldpoint 基金首席市場戰略分析師Cameron Dawson 表示鑑於目前市場的大幅下跌，市場上開始出現抄底情緒，但是她認爲能放心買入的股票的市場底部卻還未正式形成。Dawson給出了幾點她用於判斷市場底部的指標，例如：市場是否出現了大量拋售趨勢，全球市場的不穩定性是否得到控制和投資者額對市場的信心值等因素。
Dawson建議一些目前有意進入股市並有不錯現金儲備的投資者可開始投資少量資金建倉一些低估值股票，但在市場未出現大量拋售趨勢和地緣政治還在持續緊張時，不建議開始大規模地買入。
與此同時，Dawson表示雖說目前市場上許多受個人投資者青睞的熱門股股價已經下跌了50%或者更多，但是過去六個月的保證金貸款率卻只下行了2%。這也表示着許多投資者還沒有開始過度產生拋售情緒，相反有些投資者或還加倉手中股票來博取市場反彈。
Dawson 還用ARK Innovation ETF ( ARKK.US)來舉例說明目前投資者對市場未開始產生過度的恐慌心理。她指出在過去的兩個星期裏，投資者沒有開始減持ARKK，相反還加倉了這隻ETF. 這隻基金在2020年的美股強力反彈的行情中，收益率超過100%，流通股的總量提升超過了400%。出色的表現也在去年也成功地建立起投資者對這隻基金的忠誠度。在去年中，該基金收益下跌了60%左右，但基金的認購量卻只下降了13%。
最後，Dawson 總結說當市場還有大量投資者繼續持倉或有加倉行爲，市場離底部就還存在距離，只有投資者們開始大量拋售他們手中的股票並開始尋求安全資產時，市場底部纔會開始正式形成。她還表示其他的國際市場目前開始出現了接近底部的情況，例如歐洲市場開始出現大量的資金出逃的情況。但目前來說，Dawson 建議投資者根據宏觀局勢進行謹慎投資，並需要注意價值陷阱的出現。
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