《大行報告》瑞信上調國泰(00293.HK)目標價至7.3元 評級「中性」
瑞信發表研究報告指,國泰(00293.HK)2021年淨虧損為55億港元,少於指引的56億至61億元,其中下半年扭虧為盈,錄得盈利20億元,撇除燃料對沖收益17億元,公司錄得盈虧平衡。
展望未來,瑞信指,近期客運航班容量保持在疫情前水平的約2%,貨運達三分之一水平,而下半年客運及貨運水平為疫情前的11%及68%,認為Omicron疫情爆發令當局再度收緊防疫措施後,相信仍要面對一定障礙。
截至2021年底國泰的流動性達到300億元,其中78億元未動用過橋貸款將於6月到期。面對運營挑戰,管理層表示將繼續以更低的成本尋求再融資機會。國泰表示無意改變現行燃油對沖政策瑞信預期,首季餘下對沖行使價約50美元料可完全行使,今年餘下三季預期對沖比率達40%,價格為50至60美元,2023年有約20%為60至70美元,估計布倫特原油價格每上漲1美元盈利將下降3%。
瑞信指,近期難以見到防疫措施放寬,但有效的成本控制令公司壓力得以緩解,考慮到復甦時間延遲及布倫特原油觸及130美元,有部分對沖收益被抵銷,預計2022 年將出現虧損,但同時將2023年盈利預測上調3%,目標價由7.1元微升至7.3元,維持「中性」評級。
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