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《大行報告》瑞銀:市場憂俄烏戰事幹擾內地汽車業供應鏈 但認爲市場反應過度
瑞銀髮表報告,指市場關注烏克蘭局勢影響汽車供應鏈,認爲汽車股價因此過度下調,估計事件對汽車企業收入損失有限,認爲近期的調整提供了有吸引力的買入機會。該行首選股是敏實集團(00425.HK)、長城汽車(02333.HK)、福耀玻璃(03606.HK)和吉利汽車(00175.HK)。 瑞銀表示,長城在俄羅斯圖拉設有工廠,佔總銷量的3%,吉利通過在白俄羅斯的一家小型工廠錄得2%的銷量,福耀在俄羅斯的收入佔比爲2%-3%。該行指出,從歷史上看,盧布貶值導致吉利和長城汽車虧損,也可能侵蝕當地購買力,但這些資產僅佔公司淨資產的2%-3%,與股價跌幅相比爲小。 不過瑞銀認爲,供應鏈中斷和原材料價格上漲造成更大不可定型,由於烏克蘭供應商的關鍵零部件短缺,大衆和寶馬等一些歐洲汽車製造商已經停止了部分歐洲生產,來自俄羅斯和烏克蘭的主要汽車原材料包括用於汽油車的鈀、用於NCM電池的鎳、用於輕質部件的鋁以及用於半導體的氖和其他惰性氣體,在芯片短缺和大宗商品價格上漲的背景下,影響可能更爲廣泛。 瑞銀指,原油價格上漲相對不太令人擔憂,因爲中國零售汽油價格具有穩定機制,因此汽車司機受到的影響不太強烈。
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