《大行報告》摩通:內地燃氣股首選崑崙能源(00135.HK)及新奧能源(02688.HK) 降潤燃(01193.HK)評級至「中性」
摩根大通發表研究報告指,內地燃氣股即將公佈2021年業績,在此之前,選股上繼續列崑崙能源(00135.HK)及新奧能源(02688.HK)爲首選,予以「增持」評級,估計上遊利潤率穩健,天然氣直銷業務增長亦強勁,目標價分別爲10元及150元。
該行認爲,持續的煤轉氣政策將推動「十四五」期間天然氣銷量每年增長約13% ,但預期高油價及首季工業用氣量增長放緩等近期不利因素,可能會對內地燃氣股的利潤率及銷量造成影響。因此,對比起純城市燃氣分銷商,摩通更喜歡同時涉足中下遊的公司,包括崑崙能源及新奧能源,同時亦看好新奧能源的綠色轉型計劃及上遊資源。
考慮到去年下半年天然氣銷量增長預期由上半年的25%降至11%,加上預料利潤率下降,摩通對新奧能源、華潤燃氣(01193.HK)及中華煤氣(00003.HK)的2021年財年盈利預測較市場普遍預期要低約 5%,預期業績公佈後,前景更清晰,會是更好的入市時機。
摩通表示,在選股方面將重點關注公司的綠色轉型措施、上遊資源、併購計劃以及股息增長能力,其中崑崙能源及華潤燃氣的手頭淨現金及自由現金流持續爲正數,表現較好。不過,華潤燃氣缺乏綠色轉型措施,業務亦不夠多元化,可能會限制其估值上行空間,評級降至「中性」,目標價由58元下調至40元。
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