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招商證券國際:俄烏局勢對全球股市造成突發性壓力 料短期震盪下行
招商證券國際發表報告表示,俄烏局勢升級對全球股市造成突發性壓力,料短期內全球能源和貴金屬價格將出現上揚行情,預計主要股市短期震盪下行,估計短期內對港股影響大於對A股的影響。 該行指,就俄羅斯對烏克蘭的衝突可能對全球能源價格造成顯着影響,主要源於俄羅斯全球能源供應上的地位,數據顯示2021年俄羅斯原油產量佔全球比重約12%,歐盟對俄羅斯的能源依賴度特別顯着,其天然氣進口的約40%和原油進口的三分之一來自俄羅斯。 該行認爲,短期內受俄烏局勢及西方國家制裁措施不確定性影響,全球主要股市走勢將持續承壓及波動加劇,料A股受海外地緣政治局勢影響程度可能小於港股。 招商證券國際料全球能源價格將進一步走高,此外部份貴金屬和農產品價格也可能出現上揚的行情。該行申恆指將在今年觸底反彈的預測,看好依賴經濟復甦的週期性行業。
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