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港A兩地鋼鐵股走強 節後堆庫存速度持續低於市場預期 補庫存行情有望加速
格隆匯2月25日丨港A兩地鋼鐵股走強,港股方面,重慶鋼鐵股份漲3.76%,滬港聯合漲3.66%,馬鞍山鋼鐵股份漲3.11,新礦資源、鞍鋼股份和西王特鋼漲超2.67%;A股方面,包鋼股份漲7.17%,首鋼股份漲6.46%,撫順特鋼、杭鋼股份、久立特材、馬鋼股份和金洲管道漲超4%,八一鋼鐵和華菱鋼鐵等更漲。東吳證券發研報稱,鋼鐵板塊春季行情或有望加速。節後堆庫存速度持續低於市場預期,上週庫存增量僅為110萬噸,增幅回落,且絕對值低於往年,2022年2月18日總庫存數據僅為2300萬噸,同比下降25%,明顯好於市場預期。我們預計春節後庫存高點可能僅僅為2400萬噸左右,同比下降超過25%,不僅大幅低於2020、2021年,甚至較2018、2019年也偏低。近期跟蹤的產量開始逐步恢復但力度不大,上上週相關部委再次重拳出擊打壓鐵礦石,加大了鋼廠復產壓力,由此判斷3月開工後鋼鐵補庫存邏輯更強,鋼價漲幅或進一步超市場預期。期貨層面已經提前反映漲價預期,鐵礦石走弱也間接推動了鋼鐵即時毛利加速擴張。隨着旺季臨近、穩增長進入兑現期以及相關各催化劑出現,鋼鐵股春季行情有望加速。

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