俄烏開戰擾亂全球市場
週四上午俄羅斯總統普京授權在頓巴斯進行特別軍事行動,全球市場均受重大影響。
美股股指期貨暴跌,道指期貨、標普500指數期貨和納斯達克100指數期貨均跌超2%。歐洲斯託克50指數跌超3%。亞太股市指數跌至2020年以來的最低水平。此外,俄羅斯聖彼得堡交易所暫停股票交易,莫斯科交易所的盧布、股票和期貨交易同樣被暫停。
烏克蘭已於當地時間24日零時起在全國範圍內(除頓涅茨克州與盧甘斯克州)實施爲期30天的國家緊急狀態。據最新報道,目前俄軍已登陸烏克蘭馬裏烏波爾和敖德薩。烏克蘭外長德米特裏·庫列巴說,俄羅斯已“挑起對烏克蘭的全面侵略”,並呼籲全世界讓俄羅斯總統普京停手。
普京說,俄羅斯不打算“佔領”其鄰國,但俄羅斯必須“保衛自己不受那些劫持烏克蘭爲人質的人的傷害”,美國及其盟友因北約聯盟的擴張而越過了俄羅斯的“紅線”。
俄烏開戰導致俄羅斯能源出口面臨風險,原油價格飆升,布倫特原油期貨價格已升至每桶100美元。緊張局勢升級導致投資者避險需求增加,紛紛轉向更安全的資產:債券價格上漲,美國十年期國債收益率跌破1.90%;金價已逼近1950美元/盎司,爲2021年初以來最高水平;美元和日元跳漲。
此外,由於俄羅斯與烏克蘭在全球糧食與食用油貿易中佔重要地位,農作物期貨延續近期上漲勢頭。芝加哥期貨交易所的小麥期貨價格上漲4.3%,至每蒲式耳9.2275美元,爲2012年9月以來的最高水平;馬來西亞棕櫚油期貨價格上漲了2.6%,達到創紀錄的每噸6139林吉特。
在加密貨幣領域,由於避險情緒增加,比特幣跌至3.5萬美元左右。第二大代幣以太坊也遭受了嚴重損失。
與此同時,西方國家準備加強對俄製裁。美國總統拜登宣佈將對俄羅斯施加“進一步的後果”,並將與其他七國集團領導人交談。
由於人們擔心烏克蘭危機會擾亂大宗商品流通,從石油到穀物再到金屬,所有大宗商品的價格都在飆升。這預示着全球經濟復甦將面臨新的挑戰。此前,全球經濟已在通脹壓力上升和貨幣政策收緊的壓力下苦苦掙扎。
市場減少了對美聯儲2022年加息次數的押注,目前預計將有大約6次加息,每次25個基點。而投資者仍然擔心,美聯儲收緊政策可能會抑制全球最大經濟體的擴張。
IG Asia Pte策略師Jun Rong Yeap表示,俄羅斯的行動升級“將刺激資金進一步轉向避險資產,因爲在西方國家採取制裁措施的情況下,形勢仍將動盪。通脹上行風險正在上升。”
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