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植耀輝: 不明朗因素續困擾 港股考驗24,000點
耀才證券研究部總監植耀輝稱,港股上週五受美團(03690)急跌拖累,恆指全周計亦累跌578點或2.3%,收報24,327點。港股上週大部分時均處於窄幅上落,投資者繼續觀望地緣局勢以及業績表現,周初變化亦不大,於24,200至24,900點水平徘徊。至週五早段亦未見太大上落,惟午後內地相繼公佈《關於促進服務業領域困難行業恢復發展的若幹政策》通知以及關注以元宇宙名義投機炒作風險,消息令新經濟股急挫,美團(03690.HK)上週五便大跌近15%,單隻股份拖累恆指下跌260點,亦令恆指上週五大跌465點或1.88%。其他新經濟股表現亦欠佳,阿裏巴巴(09988.HK)、京東集團(09618.HK)及小米集團(01810.HK)均下跌近2.5%。至於內房股上週五則見反彈,華潤置地(01109.HK)、中海外(00688.HK)及碧桂園(02007.HK)分別上升5%、2.9%及2.3%。 美團股價急跌是否已反映相關不利消息仍須觀察,但可以肯定的是未來美團經營狀況挑戰不少,特別是成本壓力大之餘,新業務扭虧仍遙遙無期,即使股價短期或出現反彈,但亦難有憧憬矣!另外,恆指服務公司上週五季檢後宣佈,加入農夫山泉(09633.HK)及聯想(00992.HK)爲成份股。前者可謂大熱之選,不過股價早已炒起,故今日未必會再有太大炒作。反而聯想今次屬「半爆冷」,雖然基本面一般,但股價短期料可看高一線,目標暫先看9元以上。 至於大市走勢,短期須關注俄烏局勢發展,另外藍籌業績期亦正式開始,本週便有匯控(00005.HK)、阿裏巴巴(09988.HK)及港交所(00388.HK)等公佈業績,相信觀望氣氛仍會持續,先看恆指能否守穩24,000點關口。 (筆者爲證監會持牌人,並未持有相關股份) ************** 恆指關鍵支持位爲24,000點 耀才證券研究部團隊稱,美股上週五(18日)再度下跌,納指跌逾1%。俄烏局勢不穩,市場避險情緒升溫,資金流入債市,美國10年期債息下跌至1.931釐。展望本週,美國將公佈被聯儲局視爲通脹指標的個人消費開支價格指數、耐用品訂單及消費情緒指數,現時利率期貨顯示3月份加息0.5釐的機會率只得不足20%。本港方面,阿裏(09988.HK)週四(24日)將公佈業績;另外,恆指季檢後決定加入聯想集團(00992.HK)及農夫山泉(09633.HK),令成份股數目將由64只增加至66只;藍籌海底撈(06862.HK)發盈警,預期截至去年底止年度錄得淨虧損約38億元至人民幣45億元人民幣。 技術走勢方面,恆指已回補2月9日裂口水平即24,548點,目前屬於三線匯聚的整固格局,14 RSI上週五開始跌穿50水平,屬於利淡,指數再度考驗100天線支持。不過需留意關鍵支持位爲24,000點,亦即小雙頂的頸線位置。 (筆者爲證監會持牌人)~
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