《大行報告》瑞銀上調綠城管理控股(09979.HK)目標價至8.3元 評級「買入」
瑞銀髮表報告表示,雖然內地一些物管公司的盈利可能會受到相關房企流動性問題影響,但政府項目管理公司的盈利確定性更高,因此認爲綠城管理控股(09979.HK)可能值得重新評級。該行將綠城管理目標價由6.5元上調至8.3元,維持「買入」評級。
瑞銀表示,由於地方政府融資工具(LGFV)和國有房企的購地價值比例正在上升,其綠城管理的項目管理業務將受益於LGFV和國有房企的訂單增加,而且這些公司和資產管理公司也可以從有流動性問題的房企收購項目。該行表示,綠城管理在政府項目管理方面處於有利位置,預測其2020年至2023年間的商業和政府項目收入複合年增長率分別爲32%和44%,該行對期間的淨利潤預測高於市場預期2%-5%。
國家住房和城鄉建設部提出「十四五」期間,在40個重點城市將保障性房屋供應增加650萬套,人民銀行、中國銀保監會明確保障性租賃住房項目有關貸款不納入房地產貸款集中度管理。瑞銀認爲,綠城管理憑藉其強大的品牌知名度、成功的往績和國企背景,將在政府項目管理方面實現更快的增長。
瑞銀指,綠城管理過去12個月的平均市值約83.4億元,高於納入恆生綜合指數的市值門檻,預計綠城管理將在3月7日進入港股通,南向資金將助推高其股價。
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