《大行報告》花旗上調美國今年加息預測至五次 料今年底3個月HIBOR升見1.45釐
上週農曆新年假期,亞洲多個主要市場休市,花旗發表報告指,上週四(3日)英倫銀行宣佈加息25點子,至0.5釐,成爲焦點。該行經濟師預測英倫銀行將在3月及5月再加息兩次,然後停止。歐央行總裁拉加德在記者會上語調「鷹派」,不排除今年加息。同時,該行上調今年美國加息頻率預測,由四次增至五次(3月、5月、6月、9月及12月),每次25點子。
報告稱,全球主要央行在面對高通脹下取態轉鷹,隨着通脹壓力消退,料大部分市場今年之後加息步伐將放緩。今年美國料頻繁加息,因此對本港銀行潛在淨息差擴張持建設性看法。花旗料本港今年底3個月銀行同業拆息升至約1.45釐水平,料2024年底進一步升至約2.05釐水平。
花旗表示,上週五(4日)港股虎年首個交易日紅盤高開,本港銀行股本年至今表現強勢,惟以預測市賬率計估值仍接近歷史低位。假設美聯儲加息四次,該行料本港銀行股股本回報率至2024年將恢復至約12%水平。料支持中銀香港(02388.HK)市賬率估值重評至一倍以上,恆生銀行(00011.HK)市賬率估值提升至接近兩倍。然而,本港國際性銀行短期盈利仍受限於重組開支。至2024年,料匯控(00005.HK)基本有形股本回報率超越10%,而渣打集團(02888.HK)亦高於7%水平。
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