《大行報告》匯豐研究降李寧(02331.HK)、安踏(02020.HK)及滔搏(06110.HK)評級至「持有」 下調目標價
匯豐研究發表報告指出,中國體育用品股股價於去年下半年受累於疫情反覆爆發,加上消費者情緒減弱,開始削弱行業增長。該行料2022財年由於疫情及宏觀不利因素令消費者支出受壓,市場對運動服及服裝和鞋類商品需求疲軟,預期體品股行業今年按年增長8.8%,遠低於15%的趨勢線,當中服裝和鞋類行業增長估計由2021年的17%大幅放緩至2022年的4%。不過,該行認為這只屬短暫性的緩衝,長期仍然看好有關行業。
此外,匯豐研究關注國內龍頭品牌的盈利風險,尤其是在今年零售利潤,雖然預計其市場份額將因Nike和Adidas等國際品牌的支出而繼續擴大,但並不如市場預期般大。該行預測今年安踏(02020.HK)、李寧(02331.HK)及特步(01368.HK)的市場份額僅增長1.5個百分點,低於去年3.6個百分點。因此下調對安踏、李寧及滔搏(06110.HK)今年純利預測3.4%、6%及17.4%,但將特步預測上調14.1%,認為其批發模式受零售銷售放緩的影響較小。
由於越南產量回升,該行較為看好製造商,故上調裕元(00551.HK)盈利預測30.9%。品牌方面偏好特步,維持「買入」評級,認為其有自我提升的空間和更多正面盈利催化劑;將安踏、李寧及滔搏的「買入」評級下調至「持有」,目標價分別削至122.7、77.1及7.4元。另維持對製造商申洲(02313.HK)及裕元的「買入」評級。
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